Arctic ice shrinks to record low 08.17.07 Search

Melting faster than computers predicted

Associated Press

The Arctic is showing the least sea ice ever seen in the satellite record

"Today is a historic day," said Mark Serreze, a senior research scientist at the center. "This is the least sea ice we've ever seen in the satellite record, and we have another month left to go in the melt season this year."

Satellite measurements showed 2.02 million square miles (5.26 million square kilometers) of ice in the Arctic, falling below the Sept. 21, 2005, record minimum of 2.05 million square miles 5.32 million square kilometers), the agency said.

Sea ice is particularly low in the East Siberian side of the Arctic and the Beaufort Sea north of Alaska, the center reported. Ice in the Canadian Archipelago also is quite low. Along the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean, sea ice extent is not as unusually low, but still is below normal, according to the center, which is in the state of Colorado.

The snow and ice center is part of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado. It receives support from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Science Foundation.

Scientists began monitoring the extent of Arctic sea ice in the 1970s when satellite images became available. The polar regions have long been of concern by climate specialists studying global warming, because those regions are expected to feel the impact of climate change sooner and to a greater extent than other areas.

Sea ice in the Arctic helps keep those regions cool by reflecting sunlight that might be absorbed by darker land or ocean surfaces. Exposed to direct sun, for example, instead of reflecting 80% of the sunlight, as ice does, the ocean absorbs 90% of sunlight. That causes the ocean to heat up and raises Arctic temperatures further. Unusually clear sky conditions have prevailed in the Arctic in June and July, which has promoted more sunshine during the period when the sun is highest in the sky over the region. The center said this led to an unusually high amount of solar energy being pumped onto the Arctic ice surface, which accelerated the melting process. Fairly strong winds also brought in some warm air from the south.

But, Serreze said in a telephone interview, while some natural variability is involved in the melting, "We simply can't explain everything through natural processes." "It is very strong evidence that we are starting to see an effect of greenhouse warming," he said. That implies influences from human activity are at work on the sea ice.

The puzzling thing, he said, is that the melting is occurring faster than computer climate models have predicted. Several years ago he would have predicted a complete melt of Arctic sea ice in summer would occur by the year 2070 to 2100, Serreze said. But at the rates now occurring, a complete melt could happen by 2030, he said. There still will be ice in winter, he said, but it could be gone in summer.

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